The AI hype cycle is rewriting ad tech’s M&A math

The comparison comes up a lot in boardrooms right now, with many asking if the current AI boom is just ad tech’s version of the late-90s dotcom bubble? Are we in the “Flooz.com” phase — or already drifting toward the shake out?

If you look at 2025’s deal tape, it’s easy to see why people ask. The year began with genuine froth: a more business-friendly U.S. administration, falling-rate expectations, and early trophy prints such as T-Mobile’s double-swoop on Vistar Media (for approximately $600 million) and Blis ($175 million), plus strategic moves like Publicis buying Lotame and The Trade Desk picking up Sincera. 

But by Q3, dealmakers were talking about something closer to a controlled deflation than a mania. Global mergers and acquisition volumes across talent- and tech-enabled services are down about 8% year on year, with buyers citing macro volatility and a widening valuation gap as the main reasons processes stall, according to sources.  For many, this represents the much-touted 2025 rebound in M&A as arriving with “a whimper, not a bang,” as bankers lean into smaller, more surgical transactions instead of 2021-style land grabs.

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