Why Bitcoin’s Defense of $76,000 Matters for MicroStrategy’s Q4 Earnings Narrative

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is set to report Q4 2025 earnings after market close on February 5, making Bitcoin’s struggle to hold the $76,000 level more than a technical battle.

Bitcoin’s price is now directly shaping the company’s earnings narrative, investor sentiment, and the credibility of its leveraged Bitcoin treasury model.

Bitcoin’s $76,000 Technical Support Bears Balance-Sheet Consequences for Strategy

As of this writing on February 4, Bitcoin is trading at $76,645 after briefly dipping to an intra-day low of $72,945 in the previous session.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

The move has pushed Bitcoin uncomfortably close to Strategy’s average acquisition cost of $76,052 across its 713,502 BTC holdings. This turns $76,000 into a balance-sheet inflection point rather than just another chart level.

A Breakeven Line with Earnings Implications

Under fair-value accounting rules adopted in 2025, Strategy must mark its Bitcoin holdings to market each quarter, allowing unrealized gains and losses to flow directly through earnings.

While Q4 results will reflect Bitcoin’s higher prices in December—when BTC traded above $80,000 for much of the quarter—continued weakness into earnings risks dominating the conversation.

The Q4 Earnings Call will be livestreamed across platforms, including X, YouTube, and Zoom.https://t.co/ipfvNuup4e

— Strategy (@Strategy) February 3, 2026

At current levels, Strategy’s Bitcoin position is roughly flat. A sustained move below $76,000, however, would push the treasury into clear unrealized losses. When Bitcoin briefly traded near $74,500 recently, Strategy faced a paper hit approaching $1 billion.

While those losses would not directly alter Q4 numbers, they loom large over sentiment heading into the earnings call and Michael Saylor’s commentary.

Buying High, Again—and the Optics Problem

Complicating matters is Strategy’s recent buying behavior. In late January and early February, the company added Bitcoin at significantly higher prices than where the market is currently trading.

The most recent tranche, 855 BTC purchased at an average of roughly $87,974, was followed almost immediately by a sharp weekend sell-off that sent Bitcoin below $75,000.

Strategy has acquired 855 BTC for ~$75.3 million at ~$87,974 per bitcoin. As of 2/1/2026, we hodl 713,502 $BTC acquired for ~$54.26 billion at ~$76,052 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/x4BXtpl6UD

— Strategy (@Strategy) February 2, 2026

Earlier January purchases were executed at even higher averages, including a tranche near $90,000 and another above $95,000.

This pattern is not new. Strategy has historically ramped up purchases during strong rallies, relying on equity issuance and zero-coupon convertible debt to fund accumulation.

While this approach has paid off over full cycles, it has repeatedly exposed the company to sharp short-term drawdowns, fueling criticism that Strategy often “buys the top” before corrections.

Echoes of 2021–2022

The current episode is drawing comparisons to Strategy’s aggressive buying in 2021, when the company accumulated tens of thousands of Bitcoin near cycle highs. When Bitcoin collapsed by more than 70% in 2022, Strategy incurred billions in unrealized losses and saw its stock plunge by more than 80%.

Michael Saylor just disclosed that MicroStrategy purchased another 480 #Bitcoin's for ~$10M in cash, or $20,817 per coin, between May 3 and Tuesday. How is he doing? Bad. He has lost on paper almost $1.38B or 34.8%.