White House: Shutdown Cause of Non-Release of October Jobs, Inflation Data
The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history has apparently led to an unprecedented gap in economic data.
It’s rendered the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unable to compile the October Consumer Price Index and non-farm payroll figures.
Although CNBC reported that “the spending impasse [appears] to be near an end,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Wednesday (Nov. 12) that economic data that’s crucial to policymakers, business leaders and financial markets may never be released because of the shutdown.
“All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed, flying blind at a critical period,” she said, noting that the lack of October employment and inflation data makes it significantly difficult to assess the economy’s health and the trajectory of inflation and wage growth to guide monetary policy.
According to Leavitt, the shutdown could lower fourth-quarter economic growth by up to 2 percentage points.
CNBC also reported that White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett said the shutdown might lower the current-quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points.
But economists cited in the CNBC report largely downplayed the data blackout’s impact on the broader economy. For example, LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach said that job numbers should be easy for the BLS to catch up on when contacting businesses for the next report.
On the other hand, he said, capturing accurate snapshots of unemployment through surveys asking Americans about their job-seeking habits during a period that’s already passed is a harder proposition.
Another reason that not having economic data is a concern: Affordability pressures, including rising costs for housing and essential goods, pose a serious threat to the U.S. economy’s stability, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said in a PYMNTS report.
“Something could happen that cuts into confidence, or consumer spending growth that we’re seeing at the aggregate level may not be as robust … as it would be otherwise, given that a lot of folks are … living month to month,” he said.
Collection of retail sales and consumer income and spending data by the Census Bureau and Department of Commerce were also been halted by the shutdown.
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