Tomorrow the Fed Ends QT — Crypto Thinks the Melt-Up Starts Now
On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will officially end Quantitative Tightening (QT), freezing its balance sheet at $6.57 trillion after draining $2.39 trillion from the system.
Analysts point to parallels with 2019, when the last QT pause coincided with a major bottom in altcoins and a surge in Bitcoin. With liquidity returning and interest rates already cut to 3.75–4.00%, crypto markets are bracing for a potentially bullish shift.
Fed Ends QT Tomorrow — Crypto Eyes 2019-Style Liquidity BoostThe Fed’s halt of its balance sheet runoff comes amid strained bank reserves, now roughly $3 trillion, or about 10% of US GDP. The Overnight Reverse Repo facility, which previously absorbed $2.5 trillion in excess cash, has dropped to near zero, removing a key liquidity buffer.
October 2025 saw the Secured Overnight Financing Rate spike to 4.25%, exceeding the Fed’s target range. The Standing Repo Facility recorded a single-day activation of $18.5 billion, reflecting persistent demand for liquidity.
FOMC minutes from October 29 detail operational adjustments designed to improve policy transmission.
“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.
This means that QT officially ends on December 1, and the Fed will stop letting its securities mature without reinvestment. From that day forward, the balance sheet will no longer shrink.
The Committee noted that downside risks to employment have risen, even though unemployment remains low, and inflation is “somewhat elevated.”
Analysts note that this marks a long-term shift: the Standing Repo Facility, initially an emergency tool, now functions as a permanent daily liquidity provider, effectively embedding the Fed in Treasury market operations.
Researcher Shanaka Anslem describes this as the “Standing Repo Era,” a structural transformation with lasting implications for global finance.
THE FED JUST CROSSED A THRESHOLD NO ONE IS DISCUSSING
December 1, 2025. The Federal Reserve terminates Quantitative Tightening. Balance sheet frozen at $6.57 trillion. The largest liquidity withdrawal in central banking history ends after draining $2.39 trillion from the… pic.twitter.com/W0QjrXC3JB
Crypto analysts are drawing direct comparisons to August 2019, when the Fed ended QT, and altcoins bottomed.
$OTHERSBTC & $WALCL (Fed Balance Sheet)
The End of QT marked the bottom on $OTHERSBTC back in August 2019
This time, QT ends on December 1, 2025