Mastercard Predicts AI Will Be ‘Meaningful’ Tailwind in APAC for 2026

Mastercard found that the Asia-Pacific region is seeing stable growth amid tariff and artificial intelligence-related upheaval.

The company’s annual economic outlook for 2026, published Tuesday (Dec. 9) by the Mastercard Economics Institute, also projected global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to ease to 3.1% next year, compared to an estimated 3.2 % in 2025, according to a Wednesday (Dec. 10) press release.

“Given its centrality to global trade, Asia Pacific has shown remarkable resilience at a time when tariff uncertainty and shifting supply chains have threatened to upend international commerce,” David Mann, chief economist, Asia Pacific, Mastercard, said in the release. “The largely positive outlook for the region’s consumers highlights a defining feature of 2026. Even as trade realignments and technological shifts dominate the global narrative, microeconomic conditions across much of Asia Pacific are improving. For businesses, staying attuned to these underlying demand trends will be essential.”

The major economic forces affecting the APAC region next year include, per the release:

• A tariff-related shakeup in trade routes, with China diversifying its exports to new locales after the United States’ share of eCommerce sales dropped from 28% in 2024 to 24% by August of this year.
• AI adoption and “targeted fiscal support,” which will be “meaningful tailwinds,” with Hong Kong, India, Japan and South Korea demonstrating robust momentum in corporate and consumer AI use.
• Travel, which is one of APAC’s most durable economic drivers. For example, Singapore’s outbound spend in the first half of this year was $2.7 billion higher than in 2019, while Indonesia and the Philippines led regional growth with respective outbound travel spending increases of 40% and 28%.

Risks and opportunities are shaping the global outlook for 2026, according to the release. On one hand, fiscal stimulus and rapid technological progress, particularly the integration of AI into business operations, are projected to serve as major drivers for growth, although the benefits will be uneven across regions.

“At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the reconfiguration of supply chains continue to create pockets of fragmentation, adding uncertainty to trade and production,” the release said. “The uneven distribution of technological gains could create policy and growth hurdles for some markets.”

PYMNTS examined the APAC region earlier this year in a conversation with Raymond Cui, country manager for China at Nuvei.

“APAC is a very vast and diverse market,” Cui said. “It includes mature markets like Japan and Korea, developing markets like mainland China, and emerging markets like Indonesia and Thailand. This diversity presents a unique challenge for payment companies entering the region.”

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