Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as NFL Season Fuels $500 Million Prediction Market Surge
Prediction markets heat up in September, with Kalshi storming past industry peer and market rival Polymarket.
Kalshi recorded a surge in trading activity, repositioning itself as a US-regulated platform, the frontrunner in the sector.
NFL and Sports Betting Drive Prediction Market AdoptionAccording to Dune data, Kalshi’s market share jumped from just 5% at the start of 2025 to over 60% by September.
Weekly trading volumes soared to more than $500 million following the kickoff of the NFL season, rivaling the levels usually seen only during US elections.
Weekly Prediction Market Volume. Kalshi vs Polymarket. Source: Dune Analytics
Sports markets have proven to be Kalshi’s breakout category. A partnership with Robinhood in March introduced retail-friendly prediction markets around pro and college football, accelerating adoption.
Analysts note that Kalshi’s regulated status in the US has given it an edge in tapping mainstream sports bettors. Meanwhile, the Polymarket prediction platform is making headway in the American market following regulatory purview with the CFTC.
The NFL effect was decisive. By the first week of the season, Kalshi’s weekly volume matched levels typically seen in presidential election years, cementing sports as a powerful new growth driver for prediction markets.
“Kalshi has done $441 million of volume since the NFL kickoff. NFL week 1 is equal to a US election. Probably nothing,” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour shared on X (Twitter) recently.
Coinbase vs Binance, but for Prediction MarketsIndustry observers often frame the Kalshi-Polymarket rivalry as a mirror of the Coinbase vs Binance dynamic in crypto.
Polymarket = Binance
Kalshi = Coinbase
Both are trying to catch up to each other
– Polymarket is trying to go live in the US soon and offer a regulated, KYC-enabled layer
– Kalshi is trying to go on-chain and enable permissionless access to non-US customers
Both are trying… pic.twitter.com/QJdoVJtEgP
This dual approach highlights the race to become the universal liquidity layer for prediction markets through regulatory compliance and decentralization.
Kalshi’s recent partnerships with Solana and Base suggest it is also preparing to bridge the crypto-native audience.
In September, the exchange launched an ecosystem hub to fund developers, creators, and new prediction products.
Introducing @KalshiEco: a hub to support builders, traders, and creators pushing the frontier of prediction markets.
We’re backing offchain and onchain innovation, with dedicated grants partnering with @Solana and @Base.
Come join us in building the future of trading the future. pic.twitter.com/maeSBMhSmP
With Paradigm backing its strategy, Kalshi is moving beyond politics and sports into entertainment, esports, and even financial market events.
Meanwhile, as Polymarket closes in on a US relaunch, CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed CFTC approval for reentry. The move could put the platform directly competing with Kalshi in its home market.
Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC.
Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.
Stay tuned https://t.co/NVziTixpqO