Gemini Leader Shares His Top 5 Crypto Industry Predictions for 2026
Gemini Director of Institutional, Patrick Liou, says 2026 will mark a structural break for crypto markets. He predicts that long-held narratives around Bitcoin cycles, regulation, and capital flows are giving way to a more institutional and macro-driven regime.
In a set of five industry predictions shared this week, Liou outlined why 2026 could reshape how investors, policymakers, and even sovereign states treat Bitcoin and crypto infrastructure.
Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle is DeadLiou argues that Bitcoin ending 2026 in negative territory would invalidate the traditional four-year cycle playbook.
Instead of the 75–90% drawdowns seen in prior cycles, Bitcoin is roughly 30% below its highs, reflecting a more mature market structure.
That view aligns with recent market behavior. ETF flows, derivatives depth, and institutional custody have absorbed supply shocks that once drove extreme boom-bust cycles.
A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.
This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.
So far, it’s been pretty bang on.
Unless you… pic.twitter.com/FRLt5w7oFT
Options markets also reflect this shift, with implied volatility holding in the 25–40% range, well below historical peaks near 80%.
As a result, Bitcoin now trades more like a macro asset. BTC is now tied to liquidity and positioning resets rather than a calendar-driven halving trade.
2026 US Midterms Will See Bipartisan Crypto SupportThe Gemini executive expects crypto to emerge as a bipartisan policy focus ahead of the 2026 US midterms.
While Republicans moved first in courting crypto voters, Democrats are increasingly engaging as market structure legislation gains momentum.
In the 2024 US elections, several crypto companies donated millions to Donald Trump's campaign.
But, for the upcoming midterms, only two crypto firms are dominantly leading the Republican push.
Ripple and Coinbase have already donated more than $56 million to Trump's GOP.
No… pic.twitter.com/f8kp6AHzgy
That prediction fits recent developments. The long-debated market structure bill, or CLARITY Act, remains stalled but continues to advance through bipartisan negotiations.
Several analysts expect a Senate breakthrough in early 2026, with enough cross-party support to bypass filibuster risk.
Also, crypto policy is becoming a campaign issue in swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. Candidates from both parties are starting to address regulation, innovation, and investor protection.
More Crypto-Powered Prediction MarketsLiou sees crypto-powered prediction markets as a major disruption in 2026, driven by their ability to aggregate real-time information more efficiently than polls or forecasts.
This trend is already visible. Polymarket’s growth over the past year has drawn new entrants, including exchange-backed and regulated platforms.
Several crypto firms like Coinbase have moved aggressively into prediction markets. The expansion reflects broader demand for market-based forecasting tied to politics, macro events, and economic outcomes.
First we announced prediction markets on Coinbase.
Now we’re bringing in the specialized talent to take our plans to the next level.
Welcome to Coinbase, @theclearingco. pic.twitter.com/KfRZSp9w9j