Bitcoin Market Outlook: October 2025 Accumulation Hints at Historic Bottom
The Bitcoin (BTC) price slid below $105,000 on Friday, reviving memories of previous capitulation phases, where despondent traders marked the start of major reversals.
While bearish sentiment dominates headlines, several veteran analysts argue that October’s gloom could be setting the stage for another historic rebound.
October’s Downturn Spurs Accumulation—Echoes of Past CyclesSome traders are drawing parallels between today’s market and late 2020, when Bitcoin traded around $12,000, far below its prior all-time high, before surging 170% in a single quarter.
“It felt dead. Everyone had moved to equities, SPACs, GME. Crypto was hopeless… and then the mother of all outperformances took place. None of this price action can psyop me,” one investor stated.
On-chain data supports that sentiment. Glassnode reports strong net accumulation among smaller Bitcoin holders (1–1,000 BTC) since early October, even as prices slid from $118,000 to $108,000.
The platform’s Trend Accumulation Score shows renewed conviction from retail and mid-sized wallets, while large holders have paused their distribution.
Smaller $BTC holders are stepping up.
Strong accumulation is underway among small to mid-sized cohorts (1–1000 BTC), while large holders have slowed distribution, signaling renewed confidence in spite of the recent shakeout. pic.twitter.com/LYFeGjrc3k
Meanwhile, Stockmoney Lizards notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score, a metric comparing market value to realized value, sits near 2.15, a zone historically associated with accumulation rather than euphoria.
“The pattern’s crystal clear…Below 2 means pain city for holders—smart money accumulates. We’re far from overheat, plenty of runway left,” they wrote.
Bitcoin MVRV Z Score. Source: Stockmoney Lizards on X
Analyst Axel Adler identifies $106,000–$107,000 as Bitcoin’s key support range, warning that losing this level could trigger a retest of $100,000, where the yearly moving average lies.
As long as this base holds, “the market structure remains bullish,” Adler says
The main support zone is currently concentrated in the $106K–107K range (STH 1M-3M Realized Price – SMA 200D). Loss of this zone will lead to a test of $100K, where the yearly moving average (SMA 365D) passes. As long as this base holds, the market structure remains bullish. pic.twitter.com/1D9PWhViCs
— Axel