Polymarket Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Below $100K This Month Hit 52% as Gold Outshines Bitcoin

According to Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin ($BTC) falling below $100,000 this month has risen to 52%. That’s a sharp shift from last week when the odds sat below 40%.

The move comes after Bitcoin’s latest pullback, sliding from $109,000 to about $104,500, according to CoinMarketCap. The market seems to be recalibrating expectations, and Polymarket traders are positioning fast.

Polymarket, known for its crowd-driven prediction markets, is often seen as an early sentiment signal. The rising “Yes” odds, that Bitcoin dips below $100K, show traders are turning cautious.

At the time of writing, more than $1.27 million has been wagered on this single event. That’s not small change, it’s a sign that participants are laser-focused on the $100K psychological threshold.

Polymarket’s design gives a real-time window into crowd expectations. Each “Yes” or “No” bet prices in collective conviction. When one side surges, it’s not random, it reflects shifts in how traders read the macro pulse.

This latest uptick in bearish odds aligns with broader uncertainty across global markets. Inflation jitters, a stronger dollar, and fresh geopolitical risks have all weighed on risk assets. Bitcoin, despite its growing institutional base, still trades as a high-beta macro asset.

Bitcoin breaking above $100,000 earlier this quarter was historic. But holding that level has proven tricky. Analysts now call $100K the new “make-or-break” line for momentum.

Polymarket’s odds rising to 52% mirrors traders’ nervousness around that key level. Historically, once prediction markets like Polymarket start to lean bearish, short-term volatility tends to spike.

We saw that pattern play out after the 2024 halving, when odds markets flipped sentiment before price corrections hit. The same could be happening now, a slow unwind of over-extended longs.

The options market tells the same story. Short-dated Bitcoin volatility just exploded.

Front-end options are now trading near 50 vol, according to data tracked by Glassnode. That’s traders paying up for immediate downside protection.

BTC’s skew, the difference between put and call pricing, remains strongly tilted toward puts. In simple terms, investors are willing to pay more to protect against a drop than to speculate on upside.

That’s not the posture of a euphoric bull market. It’s defensive, even cautious.

Still, the flows aren’t all one way. Some traders are rolling existing protection lower, taking profit on previously bought puts. Others are quietly selling volatility, betting that this panic might fade. A few even scooped up cheap calls, hinting at selective dip-buying.

So, while sentiment is shifting, it’s not a full-on panic. It’s controlled caution.

Macro uncertainty continues to weigh on $BTC. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by over 20% in the past week, taking some of its “store-of-value” share. The options market reflects that shift in sentiment.

Let’s dig in